allonlinenovel Chapter 309 Hang Seng Index Rebound
Chapter 309 Hang Seng Index Rebound
3 PM, in the conference room.
Li Ziyu convened a meeting with all the traders. Seven people, five men and two women, sat around a long table. Each person had a laptop in front of them, the screen lit up, displaying various data.
Ling Yun sat in the corner, with An Shiyu beside her. It was her first time in such an occasion, and she was a little nervous, her fingers gripping the hem of her clothes.
"This is General Manager Ling," Li Ziyu introduced, "our company's chief consultant."
The eyes of all seven traders swept over at once. Some looked curious, some were expressionless, and some twitched their lips slightly—very slightly, but Ling Yun noticed it.
"What Mr. Ling means is," Li Ziyu continued, "to continue waiting and not to establish a position at the current level."
There was a two-second silence in the conference room.
Then a young man spoke up. He was sitting at the other end of the long table, his hair neatly combed, wearing a white shirt with the cuffs buttoned up tightly.
"Mr. Li, may I share my thoughts?"
Li Ziyu looked at Ling Yun, but Ling Yun didn't move.
"Speak," he said.
The young man cleared his throat. "The Hang Seng Index rebounded from 7280 to 7940, a gain of over 600 points in three days. From a technical perspective, the RSI has just emerged from the oversold zone, the MACD has just formed a golden cross, and trading volume is also increasing. From a fundamental perspective, the Hong Kong government has just stated its intention to stabilize the market, and there are also favorable policies from the mainland. The bears have exhausted their strength, and now is the time for the bulls to start building positions."
After he finished speaking, he looked at Ling Yun.
Ling Yun didn't speak.
Another trader, a woman in her thirties, spoke up: "Mr. Ling, I know you were very successful in Southeast Asia. But that's the foreign exchange market, not the Hong Kong stock market. With this rebound, missing it might mean missing out forever."
The third trader, the oldest one, adjusted his glasses: "Based on historical data, there's a 73% probability that a rebound of this magnitude will continue to rise, rather than a double bottom."
The meeting room fell silent, with only the hum of the computer fans breaking the silence.
Ling Yun stood up. He walked to the whiteboard, picked up a marker, and drew a coordinate axis.
"You're all right." He drew a downward curve, then a rebound, "but you've missed one thing."
Everyone was looking at him.
"Time." Ling Yun marked several points on the coordinate axis. "October 1997, the first wave of decline. January 1998, the second wave. March 1998, the third wave. June 1998, this time. The interval between each wave is shortening, and the low point of each wave is also decreasing."
He drew a dashed line connecting the low points.
"This is not an ordinary bear market; this is the second phase of the Asian financial crisis in Hong Kong stocks. The short sellers are not retreating; they are waiting for the next batch of ammunition."
The young man opened his mouth, then closed it again.
"The rebound you're seeing," Ling Yun put down his marker, "is a bait for the bulls."
No one spoke in the meeting room, and Ling Yun walked back to his seat and sat down.
Li Ziyu stood up and looked around.
"Did you understand?" His voice was flat. "Now, get back to work. Those who need to monitor the market, monitor it; those who need to analyze, continue analyzing. As for building positions, wait for Mr. Ling's instructions."
The seven traders stood up one after another and left the conference room. The last one to leave was the young man. He paused at the door, glanced back at Ling Yun, and then pushed the door open and went out.
After the door closed, Li Ziyu let out a long sigh and leaned back in his chair.
"These kids," he said, "have been spoiled by the bull market."
Ling Yun didn't reply.
An Shiyu sat beside him, her fingers still clutching the hem of her clothes. She looked at Ling Yun, her eyes holding an indescribable light.
At 5 p.m., there weren't many people left in the company, so Li Ziyu suggested going out for lunch.
"It's my sister-in-law's first time visiting Hong Kong, so I'm treating them," he said. "Yung Kee's roast goose is the most famous in Hong Kong."
An Shiyu glanced at Ling Yun, and Ling Yun nodded.
Yung Kee is located in Central, within walking distance. The shop isn't large, but it's always packed with people, with a queue outside. Li Ziyu was clearly a regular customer; after exchanging a few words with the waiter, he was led to a small private room on the second floor.
The private room was small, seating only four people. A calligraphy scroll hung on the wall, bearing the words "Food in Guangzhou". Outside the window was the street, with the faint sounds of traffic and people drifting in.
The dishes were served one after another: roast goose, char siu, poached chicken, and steamed fish. An Shiyu tried a little of everything and said it was delicious.
"Is this your first time in Hong Kong, sister-in-law?" Li Ziyu asked.
"Um."
"Stay a few more days, and I'll have someone show you around. Victoria Peak, Repulse Bay, and Ocean Park are all great places to visit."
An Shiyu glanced at Ling Yun. "It depends. I'll just take her for a casual stroll," Ling Yun said.
Li Ziyu smiled and didn't try to persuade him further.
After finishing their meal, it was already dark. The neon lights on the street lit up, red, green, and blue, painting the night with vibrant colors. An Shiyu stood at the shop entrance, gazing up at the neon signs, completely absorbed.
"Isn't it beautiful?" Li Ziyu asked.
"It's beautiful," An Shiyu said, "but a little messy."
Li Ziyu laughed. "That's just how Hong Kong is; chaos is what makes it interesting."
Ling Yun called a car and took An Shiyu back to the hotel first.
The hotel was in Central, and the room was on the 30th floor, with floor-to-ceiling windows offering a view of Victoria Harbour at night. An Shiyu stood by the window, gazing at the lights, motionless.
"Go to sleep early if you're tired," Lingyun said.
"And you?"
"Go to the company and have another talk with Li Ziyu."
An Shiyu turned around and looked at him.
"What time will you be back?"
"I don't know. You go to sleep first, don't wait up for me."
An Shiyu nodded.
Nine o'clock in the evening, Yu Hui Capital.
Most of the lights in the office building were off, except for the conference room on the 23rd floor. Li Ziyu sat at one end of a long table, a pile of documents spread out in front of him. He looked up when Ling Yun pushed the door open and entered.
"They're here."
Ling Yun sat down opposite him.
"Are your sister-in-law settled in?"
"All settled in."
Li Ziyu nodded and pushed a document towards him. "This is detailed data from the past week, including the rise and fall of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks, trading volume, fund flows, and derivatives positions. It's all the data you requested."
Lingyun took the document and began to flip through it.
Li Ziyu didn't disturb them and just sat across from them waiting.
After flipping through the documents for half an hour, Lingyun closed them.
"What do you think?" Li Ziyu asked.
"What's your name, young man?" Ling Yun asked.
"Which one?"
"The one with the neatly combed hair."
"Chen Zi'ang. Graduated from the Department of Finance at the University of Hong Kong, has been working for three years, and is very skilled in technical analysis. It's just... he's young and impatient."
Ling Yun nodded.
"The technical indicators he mentioned were all correct," Ling Yun said. "But he overlooked one thing—this was the Asian financial crisis, not a normal cyclical fluctuation."
"So what's your judgment?"
Ling Yun stood up and walked to the window. "It will fall further," he said, "and it will fall below 7,200."
Li Ziyu was silent for a few seconds, then asked, "When will that be?"
"I don't know," Ling Yun said. "But the steeper the fall, the stronger the rebound. What we need is not to buy at the bottom, but to wait for certainty."
"What if it continues to rebound?"
"No." Ling Yun turned around. "The rebound your traders saw was just a short seller's counterattack during their retreat. After this bull trap ends, there will be another drop. Once it reaches its bottom, the national team will step in and wipe out these speculators. Even big short sellers like Soros can't withstand it."